THE WEEKLY ROUNDUP: LOSING MOMENTUM

Price Action: On Mon 02 Dec 2019, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 12137.05 ( 214.59 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 12137.15 ( -22 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 11888.85 ( -31 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 11921.5 ( -135 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 3,245,378,437 ( -13% Lower than last week, and about 20.2% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 73.51% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 0.1 Points, and the body was equal to 215.55 and lower shadow was equal to 32.65

1. Bias is neutral
2. Nifty is in uptrend
3. Supports could be between 12,737 -12,786
4. Nifty could get oversold below 10-800
5. Surprise bounces and sideways movements are here to stay, for some more time

THE DAILY INDICES ROUNDUP: DEEP CORRECTION

Price Action: On Fri 06 Dec 2019, the Nifty50 Index opened at 12047.35 ( -23.89 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 12057.05 ( -25 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 11888.85 ( -110 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 11921.5 ( -97 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 609,221,205 ( 8% Higher than last trading session, and about -9.6% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -29.24% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 9.7 Points, and the body was equal to 125.85 and lower shadow was equal to 32.65

THE DAILY INDICES ROUNDUP:BOUNCE WAS A RESULT OF SHORTCOVERNG

Price Action: On Thu 05 Dec 2019, the Nifty50 Index opened at 12071.25 ( 101.29 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 12081.2 ( 26 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 11998.75 ( 63 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 12018.4 ( -25 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 562,228,745 ( -25% Lower than last trading session, and about -17.1% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -52.53% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 9.95 Points, and the body was equal to 52.85 and lower shadow was equal to 19.65

THE DAILY INDICES ROUNDUP:NIFTY APPRAOCHING PREVIOUS WEEK LOW ON THINNER VOLUMES

Price Action: On Tue 03 Dec 2019, the Nifty50 Index opened at 12067.65 ( -69.39 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 12068.6 ( -69 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 11956.4 ( -68 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 11994.2 ( -54 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 605,789,334 ( -16% Lower than last trading session, and about -11.1% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -34.26% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 0.95 Points, and the body was equal to 73.45 and lower shadow was equal to 37.8

THE DAILY INDICES ROUNDUP: INSIDE DAY - RUNNING CORRECTION?

Price Action: On Mon 02 Dec 2019, the Nifty50 Index opened at 12137.05 ( -9.15 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 12137.15 ( -11 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 12023.7 ( 6 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 12048.2 ( -8 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 720,945,335 ( -10% Lower than last trading session, and about 5% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 15.37% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 0.1 Points, and the body was equal to 88.85 and lower shadow was equal to 24.5

THE WEEKLY INDICES ROUNDUP: BIAS TURNS NEUTRAL

1. The bias turns Neutral
2. Even if Nifty falls by 12000 points, the uptrend remains intact
3. For Kelly adjustment, a weekly close above 12-120 is required
4. Overbought above 12-350
5. Supply above Upper Bollinger Band, which is at 12135 ± 15

THE DAILY INDICES ROUNDUP: SHARP CORRECTION ON EVEN LOWER % VOLUME

Price Action: On Fri 29 Nov 2019, the Nifty50 Index opened at 12146.2 ( 14.1 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 12147.4 ( -12 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 12017.4 ( -83 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 12056.05 ( -96 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 804,430,391 ( 30% Higher than last trading session, and about 17.5% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 53.7% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 1.2 Points, and the body was equal to 90.15 and lower shadow was equal to 38.65

THE DAILY INDICES ROUNDUP: NR20 VIRGIN POC AT 12084.40, 11928.10 AND 11834.40

Price Action: On Wed 27 Nov 2019, the Nifty50 Index opened at 12068.5 ( -41.7 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 12114.9 ( -18 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 12055.15 ( 48 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 12100.7 ( 63 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 584,226,618 ( -51% Lower than last trading session, and about -14.1% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -42.43% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 14.2 Points, and the body was equal to 32.2 and lower shadow was equal to 13.35

 

THE DAILY INDICES ROUNDUP: BOUNCE ON LOW VOLUMES

Price Action: On Mon 25 Nov 2019, the Nifty50 Index opened at 11922.45 ( -44.84 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 12084.5 ( 116 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 11919.75 ( 36 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 12073.75 ( 159 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 534,289,467 ( 10% Higher than last trading session, and about -18.1% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -57.5% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 10.75 Points, and the body was equal to 151.3 and lower shadow was equal to 2.7

THE WEEKLY ROUNDUP: NIFTY IS IN A STATE OF CORRECTION

1. The bias in weekly time frame is positive;
2. Nifty continues to be in a state of uptrend;
3. Supports could be placed around 11800;
4. current correction might not be over as yet;

THE DAIILY ROUNDUP: CORRECTION ON FALLING VOLUME, VIRGIN POC AT 11832

Price Action: On Fri 22 Nov 2019, the Nifty50 Index opened at 11967.3 ( -58.35 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 11968.1 ( -61 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 11883.5 ( -74 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 11914.4 ( -54 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 486,815,185 ( -13% Lower than last trading session, and about -26.3% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -84.58% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it's True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 0.8 Points, and the body was equal to 52.9 and lower shadow was equal to 30.9

THE DAILY ROUNDUP: NR20 NONDESCRIPT SESSION

THE DAILY ROUNDUP: NR15 AND VALUE MIGRATES 80+ POINTS TO 12003

THE DAILY ROUNDUP: NR7 WITH VIRGIN POCs AT 11-922 AND 11-832

THE DAILY ROUNDUP: NR4 WITH VIRGIN POC AT 11-832

THE WEEKLY ROUNDUP: DOJI IN ALL TIMEFRAMES

1. The Bias is positive
2. The uptrend has paused
3. Resistances beyond 12-080
4. Supports between 11-760 and 11-810

THE DAILY ROUNDUP: TESTING 5 EMA ON LOW VOLUMES

20 EMA is around 11-786.

THE DAILY ROUNDUP:NIFTY CLOSED AT 8 EMA OF LOWS

Nifty has closed exactly at 8 EMA. Besides it also breached the previous weeks low at 11850. Any closing lower than the current level could open gates for a deeper "correction".

Introduction

With The Name of Allah - The Most Merciful and The Most Beneficent.


In this new blog, I intend to present a coherent yet consistent method of betting in Indian Stock Indices. I have chosen three moving averages, as follows

1. 5 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the Pivot Points (HLC/3)
2. 20 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the Pivot Points (HLC/3)
3. 8 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the Lows

And two indicators, namely, On Balance Volume (OBV) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Though both are momentum indicators but an all out attempt would be made to avoid the problem of collinearity.

My further intention is to approach the following analysis as objectively as possible, keeping in mind and view the basic tenets of Skepticism, questioning the assumptions, analysis and conclusions, critically. The objective would be to avoid the common fallacies and psychological biases

I would use the 8 period EMA of Lows of the daily and weekly time-frames for finding turning points in the trend. The combination of 5 and 20 EMA would be used for finding the re entry points in the direction of the trend. OBV would be used to detect and confirm the bias; and MACD would be used to detect the momentum. I further intend to use two time-frames, that is, daily and weekly - daily for finding the trading opportunities and weekly to study the underlying short term trend.

Stock Prices tend to be random. But Randomness is not the same as Haphazardness. Naturally occurring Random Phenomenon exhibit patterns such as trends, waves and certain geometrical and non geometrical formations with respect to time. Indicators based on Random Prices tend to exhibit their own patterns which are sometimes, and not always, easy to comprehend, that is the primary use of these indicators.

Question: "Earlier it was Quantitative Analysis and Statistical Research then you wrote about Predictive Analytics and Mathematical Research, now this switch to dark corner of Philosophy - where are you headed to?"
Answer: Enlightenment!

This introduction would be subject to revisions from time to time to reduce ambiguities, arising out of the syntax and semantics of the preceding introduction. Thank You